The whole point of free speech is not to make ideas exempt from criticism but to expose them to it.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

When Nate Silver (...and Taunia Adams) talk, people, ...listen.

A few posts back, Forumpian first class, Taunia Adams noted, "I'm sensing an upward turn in this healthcare discussion nationally and locally. I don't see it by Thanksgiving, but there's hope."

Well, she's not alone. Nate Silver at is noticing a bump in the polling after the Obama speech that he thinks just might be a game changer. And he doesn't think we'll have to wait till Turkey Day to find out.

If we simply take the three polls at face value and average them together (6.7 points), they in fact point toward a statistically strong likelihood of a bounce. Concluding that there is no bounce on the basis of the ABC poll, as some smart commentators appear to have done, while ignoring the other polling, is not objective, plainly put. There should, however, be plenty more data out before the end of the week to help settle any arguments.

And speaking of Turkey Day, how are we possibly going to top that performance by ex-governor Palin at the wood shed after the election last year?

Taunia, Mike, any ideas?

Do they involve Sibby?


Michael Sanborn said...

I'm suspect of all polling. There's no such thing as an objective poll anymore, from either side of anything political.

I actually suspect peoples' interest in healthcare has waned because they are sick of the back and forth bickering and don't believe anything will change significantly.

Honest polls are rarely shared with the public. I think a lot of political operatives conduct polls that make an honest effort to discover voters' positions. Those polls are not shared with the public, they are used to shape political strategy.

Bill Fleming said...

Mike, how is it that a poll by Gallup or Pew Research for public consumption should be any more inherently suspect than an internal poll by John Thune or Tim Johnson, provided the same methodology was employed?

Bill Fleming said...

Besides, Mike, I'm much more interested in your take on what to do with the Sibbyatolah than I am in your jaded, cynical, newsman, drive-by opinion of my sacred, never-to-be-mistrusted push polls. (wink)

Michael Sanborn said...

I've always been a conspiracy theorist where polls are concerned. It doesn't take very many "Maximizer" reports to convince you that a lie can the truth if you use the right numbers, ask the right people or structure the question correctly.

Taunia Adams said...

Sibson is thriving on all of the time we dedicate to him, and the posts he responds to generally wind up way off base and certainly not even close to what the topic was by the end.

I defended Sibson over at Mt. Blogmore awhile back when the topic was to ban him or not from the Mt. I have no problem with Sibson being anywhere.

My aggravation with him is my own problem, as I choose to engage in discussion with him. Or did.

I think his posts need to be taken with a grain of salt and not responded to in such a personal way.

It's each of our own problems when we choose to interact with him.

Taunia Adams said...

As far as the upswing in the healthcare debate, Obama's speech last week inspired the masses and even the local coffee shop talk isn't quite as partisan as it was prior to the speech. At least now the chatter is "how will anything get paid" as opposed to "not no, but hell no!"

Sam Hurst's name has been used in vain in my neck of the woods this week and the resounding consensus is "yes for the children".

To be fair, Joe Wilson is becoming a bit of hero, too. Not necessarily to do with healthcare, just because he (white trashed) screamed what he did.

And yes, Wilson needs admonished. I don't find it really helpful to watch the House of Commons on CSPAN, with their rude ways.

Michael Sanborn said...

I don't think we do anything with Sibby.

We understand that he has tunnel vision and that he is abrasive.

If he wants to come here and tell us we're not true Americans, let him do so and get his spankings. I think he secretly enjoys them.

Taunia Adams said...

I'd prefer you and Bill spank Sibson. I've seen him.

Bill Fleming said...

Ok, Mike and Taunia. I think I get it.

Let Sibby say whatever, but probably no cartoons of Sanborn holding him upside down over Sarah Palin's turkey whacking machine, huh?

Because that would be too personal?


And here I almost had all the photoshop work done.

I was just trying to find a better pix of Taunia to sub for Palin's face.

The only one I've seen of you, TA, is at the wrong angle.

Michael Sanborn said...


I think Carter is WAY off base. I don't think Wilson was motivated by racism, I think he was frustrated. He apologized. Obama accepted. Democrats have been guilty of similar offenses in the past without admonition. Let it go and carry on.

For Democrats to trot out Carter and declare that the health care debate is about racism is an act of desperation.

Those who are looking for a bi-partisan solution to health care issues will be victorious, but not by Thanksgiving. Smart legislation can't be written, amended and passed by then.

The 2009 deadline is about getting the taxing authority, not about getting the best legislation. We need to get the best legislation.

Bill Fleming said...

Ahem... M & T, you're posting the Carter stuff to the wrong thread.

Am I supposed to haul your comments over there or wha...?

Sheesh. You kids.

...and no bickering.

I don't want to have to stop this car.

Michael Sanborn said...

But she's touching me! Tell her to quit touching me!

Taunia Adams said...

He's breathing my air!

Yeah, you've led me astray, Michael. Look at what you getting all excited over Sibson does to your train of thought.

I'll be back later to "get in your space" and continue this.

senor citizen said...

So much for Obama's bump, fist bump, or whatever you want to call it!