The whole point of free speech is not to make ideas exempt from criticism but to expose them to it.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Noem vs. Herseth Sandlin and polls

The Democrats have trotted out a bunch of their "internal" polls which purport Herseth Sandlin to be way ahead of Noem. Read it here.

Most folks who regularly come to this site know I've little regard for polling for a number of reasons. The Rasmussen Poll, which is among the few I almost trust, has Noem out ahead of Herseth Sandlin. I think it's a whole lot closer to a dead heat.

Here are some of my problems with the race:

1. I've met and spoken with both candidates. I think Noem is the superior thinker and would be a superior representative. Herseth Sandlin (and her staff) are superior politicians...i.e. they're better at slinging mud and making it look like they're discussing issues.

2. There are a lot of issues to discuss in this state and both candidates have avoided doing so like the plague. Herseth Sandlin ads are sticky-sweet vacuous wastes of air time and expensive video production and present the lie that she has South Dakota's best interests at heart. Noem's first two ads were exactly what they needed to be: short, to the point and effective. Still, those ads talked about what was wrong with Congress. And, I believe both candidates need to address what they will do once elected, and neither have.

3. I have spoken to many (Democrats and Republicans) who watched them debate and most believe their candidate did well but did not run away with it.

4. Both candidates have discussed agricultural issues to a small degree, but not enough to know where they actually stand. And neither of them has discussed other small businesses in South Dakota, or it's redheaded step-child tax revenue producer: tourism.

5. Kristi's last post on her website was Aug. 26th. Herseth Sandlin's last post was Aug. 28.

Neither campaign is doing a good job. I believe moderates and conservatives in South Dakota who meet Noem, will like her and likely vote for her. If she meets enough of those moderates, Herseth Sandlin will lose the race. Herseth Sandlin's vote for Pelosi and her refusal to repeal Obamacare, may have lost the race anyway.

It's a shame isn't it? Two bright candidates. And, we know so little about either of them.


caheidelberger said...

Kristi the superior thinker? Seriously? Have you listened to the debates? SHS has the policy details; Noem is stuck on talking points. SHS can pivot and rebut (which takes paying attention and thinking); Noem in much less capable in that area.

Let me be the first person you speak with who listened to the State Fair debate and thinks his candidate not just did better but ran away with the debate on style and substance.

And I get the feeling (yes, pure speculation, tinged with hope) Noem has already all she's got, while SHS has only just begun to fight.

taco said...

I'm voting for Kristi, but I don't think she is a superior thinker or even bright.

repete said...

I'm voting for Stephanie because she is the superior thinker.
Noem campaigns on the negative because she has no ideas of her own and nothing new to add. She has NO CLUE how to reduce government or taxes. All just lip service from another non-thinking mouth piece with no guts to stand up to the issues (because taking a stance upon something solid may lose a few votes).

Bill Fleming said...

Cory, sometimes Mike just goes all delusional.

My hunch is, he's not done a lot of internal polling, otherwise, he wouldn't have written what he wrote.

Internal polls are a totally different animal than public poll, done for a completely different purpose.

When the new Rasmussen poll comes out on the House race, we can compare them, yes. But they'll never be apples to apples. Better to look at them in the composite as opposed to one versus the other. They each tell us different things about the race.

And as for Mikes assertion that he doesn't know anything about SHS, well that's just ridiculous.

Delusional. Of course he does. He just forgot. Must be Kristi fever. I hear it's been going around.

Michael Sanborn said...

Both candidates spend too much time with their finger in the air trying to see which way the wind of public opinion is blowing.

Taco, who is the better thinker is up for debate, I agree. I think Stephanie is bright, but I think she also is getting very bad advice from her campaign staff.

Kristi is quite bright, but also is getting some bad counsel from staff.

I've said on this blog many times that Stephanie has done a credible job as our representative, and the world won't come to an end if she's returned to the house.

Bill understands internal polling very well, and so do I. They are only released to the public when there is a perception that the opponent is becoming dangerous. Kristi is becoming dangerous, and Bill would have to agree there, I think.

Stephanie will have a good deal of trouble dealing with some of her votes that have been unpopular in South Dakota.

Repete: Negativity? Are you kidding? Stephanie's people go twenty + years into Kristi's background and all they find are traffic tickets, then they try to make an issue out of that? Stephanie's dad and her chief of staff have more serious issues on the road.

If I were Stephanie, I'd be hammering the fact that Kristi is all for less government spending, but also participates in farm subsidies...that Republican Mike Rounds took stimulus money for the state...etc. But no. We get speeding tickets. C'mon.

caheidelberger said...

Actually, Michael, check Sunday's State Fair debate. SHS did hit Noem by pointing out that Rounds asked for and welcomed the stimulus and the recent Medicaid/education federal assistance. And Herseth hasn't been hitting the traffic tickets or the court issues. She answered questions from KELO and that was pretty much it. SHS made no mention of the issue in Sunday's debate. The Noem family court records have come from KELO and from Kevin Woster. The Noem campaign clearly originated the stuff about Lars Herseth, and her faux-anon campaign blog originated the Tessa Gould DUI story. Ask Joel Rosenthal: he'll tell you the Noem staff is blowing it by getting off message.

And "taco"—you should vote for the superior thinker.

repete said...

Willingness to give Noem more credit than she deserved in the debate is really an attempt to justify single party thinking.

If you could have heard the actual words without any political leaning, you would have heard a meaningless tirade of wordy words from both sides that skirted every issue with the exception that Stephanie (neat political trick, use a hard last name so it's easier to know her on a first name basis) had to defend and stand solid on issues that she has had to vote on.
In my thinking, that gave Stephanie credibility. Not that I agreed with all her votes, I did not, but at least she has a platform other than ideology (i.e. government sucks) that tells me nothing about Noem or what she'll actually do when and if empowered. I want to know how she will react when she has to make those actual decisions, even the evil government related ones.

Kristi comes off as a church lady... especially considering her partaking in almost $3,000,000! in government cash. Can you say 'Self-righteous'?
She should give it back with instructions to use it against the national debt. Her words, not mine.

Add to that nanny, her desire to control woman's uterus and get between a doctor, a patient and prescribed medicine. I sure hope we have a loser here.

As to her lack of regard for traffic laws, no condemnation, I have several tickets too, but maybe its a pattern. I wouldn't vote for me.