The whole point of free speech is not to make ideas exempt from criticism but to expose them to it.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

So, is the recession over or what?

I'm just looking at some numbers here today. The day before Inauguration Day 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 8,281. Today as I type this, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 9,299. That's up + 1,018 points. The day before Inauguration Day 2009, the Nasdaq was at 1529. Today as I type this, the Nasdaq is at 2,006. That's up + 477 points.

When these numbers all went south on Inauguration Day (Dow down to 7949, Nasdaq down to 1440) my Repub friends could hardly wait to blame it all on Obama. Ok. Fine.

So how about today's numbers? Obama's fault?

If not, please, friends, enlighten me.

Heaven knows I'm no finance wizard over here.


Taunia Adams said...

I can't quite read those numbers, can you enlarge them, please?

I also can't see or hear any Republican response. Can you turn up the volume?

Thanks in advance.

Bill Fleming said...

Taunia, as always, I'm at your service.

Which number would you like to see larger, madame?

Any special colour?

And as for volume. I'm afraid it's at red-line now.

In fact, I think I can hear the background noise from the big bang on my end, (and for sure the fridge in the garage running) but other than that, zip, ziltch, nada.

How 'bout you?

Anonymous said...

Hello Most Decorous Citizens,

You've gone and done it again, creating another place on the internet that requires my attention. Please don't go too fast. I still have my information technology training wheels on this bike.

Besides, I've got my day job, 200 linear feet of baseboard to install in our house, friends (and probably a few enemies) to correspond with, plus finding time to brush and floss and get a few hours of fitful sleep each evening.

Guess the addition of your provocative blog to my internet trapline means that some other sites have got to go. Craigslist (I've got power tools a plenty), Drudge Report and the Huffington Post (bookends, would you not agree), and perhaps a site from Missoula, Mont., called "New West" that has caught my eye in recent months.

I'll keep reading; if you keep writing.

West of the Potomac

Gordon Howie said...

Bill, Bill, Bill....
I think we can agree that this is encouraging news. Let us, however, take off our partisan hats and look a bit closer. The name-whose-to-blame game misses the point, regardless of which side of the isle it comes from. Here is the real world... There are (still) hundreds of thousands of Americans who are (still) adversely affected by the economic mess we are (still) in. I think both parties have failed us in many ways. The question is, how much more do we let them "fail us"? The dimwits that brought us this problem in the first place are now the ones who are telling us they know how to fix it. Given the fact that most of the "stimulus" money is not yet spent, is it possible that if those experts would just leave well enough alone our economy might rebound on it's own? Why not stop spending and let this "recovery" continue? And while we are at it, let's get rid of some of these experts in Washington D.C.?

Bill Fleming said...

West. Always good to see you, my friend.
Welcome to the Forum.

Bill Fleming said...

Gordon, thanks for checking in.

Don't you think there's a certain justice in getting people to clean up their own messes?

I've heard of many a reformed thief later doing good by helping design better security systems.

And many a recovering addict helping other addicts recover.

I'm just sayin'.

Gordon Howie said...

Thank God for recovering addicts and reformed theives. I just can't think of any stupid polititians who ever "got smart". The theif and addict both have to have a true life conversion before they can be of service to their fellow man. I haven't seen any conversions in D.C. lately, have you?

Bill Fleming said...

Well, the juries still out on that one, isn't it, Gordo? In theory, the people have replaced what they perceived to be an inept administration with one that can right the plethora of wrongs heaped on us by our "Baby Boomer" generation, and decades of partisan bickering. Well see, huh?

Steve Sibson said...

So the stock market going up, as unemployment also rising, is a good thing? Only for Fleming and his plutocratic greedy capitalists, and at the expense of the working class.

Bill Fleming said...

Have some bad meatloaf tonite, Sibby? Need some Tums or somethinn'?

Bill Fleming said...

Ok, Steve, check it out. A recession is defined thus:

"In a 1975 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for identifying a recession, one of which was "two down quarters of GDP".[3] In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten,[4] and a recession is now often defined simply as a period when GDP falls (negative real economic growth) for at least two quarters.[5][6] Some economists prefer a more robust definition of a 1.5% rise in unemployment within 12 months.[7]"

Is that an acceptable definition?

And if so, would you say that the end of a recession would be the cessation of that? A leveling off? And further, that if the reverse were true, you would say that you are no longer in a recession at all?

Like I said, I'm no economist here, so I'm trying to ask some questions and get some good answers.

Assuming what I'm reading is true, take a look at this.